Phase 1, 1949-1972:
— S.L. Kanthan (@Kanthan2030) October 16, 2022
Containment and Red Scare, the standard response during the Cold War.
Sanctions and isolation, cut off all relations with China. pic.twitter.com/ogfMTzejyJ
Phase 2, 1972-2008: Hopeful Times
— S.L. Kanthan (@Kanthan2030) October 16, 2022
But the containment failed as China grew powerful and even developed nuclear weapons.
Hence the engagement period for almost four decades.
Started with Nixon’s visit to Beijing to meet with Mao.
Carter and Deng sealed the deal in 1979. pic.twitter.com/LairNawuzP
Phase 2 was the “Hopeful” period. Because the US hoped that China would renounce communism/socialism and become a capitalist society.
— S.L. Kanthan (@Kanthan2030) October 16, 2022
Americans were convinced that their system is so awesome that Chinese could not resist it!
Hey, who can resist McDonald’s and Coca Cola? pic.twitter.com/LRHRugK9ri
Phase 2 hit a bump in 1989 when the US tried a color revolution in 1989.
— S.L. Kanthan (@Kanthan2030) October 16, 2022
But US corporations couldn’t resist the opportunity to make trillions of dollars from China’s cheap labor and promising consumer market.
Thus, George W. Bush welcomed China into WTO in 2001. pic.twitter.com/9VDphYTrJ7
Phase 3, 2008-2020: Change through Hostility
— S.L. Kanthan (@Kanthan2030) October 16, 2022
By 2008, the US was not only mad at China but started to feel threatened.
China grew too fast and, worse, refused to embrace US-style capitalism.
China was like a guy who went to church every week but wouldn’t get baptised!
The housing crisis of 2008 revealed the entire Western system to be a Ponzi scheme.
— S.L. Kanthan (@Kanthan2030) October 16, 2022
And China not only unscathed by the global crisis, but its growth skyrocketed.
China was also mastering hi-tech and quickly moving up the value chain. Chinese cities looked amazing. pic.twitter.com/SDQAFo9JbX
Hence Phase 3 was about destabilising China to force change.
— S.L. Kanthan (@Kanthan2030) October 16, 2022
1) Obama’s pivot to Asia, military encirclement
2) Unrests in Xinjiang and Hong Kong
3) Trade wars
and so on were unleashed by the US.
Under Trump, the US even demanded Plaza Accord 2.0.
Nothing worked.
Phase 4: Strategy of Denial
— S.L. Kanthan (@Kanthan2030) October 16, 2022
Hence the new strategy of denial. Biden’s advisor Colby has even written a book about it.
This is America’s last hope. It’s a targeted containment policy. pic.twitter.com/9VzCEB9hil
Phase 4 is surgical.
— S.L. Kanthan (@Kanthan2030) October 16, 2022
Trade with China except in high-end semiconductors and other advanced areas of technology.
Attack China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Coup in China-friendly nations.
Kick China out of large consumer markets like India.
Arm Taiwan & other neighbors.
Phase 4 is like a modified version of Phase 1.
— S.L. Kanthan (@Kanthan2030) October 16, 2022
Impose isolation and sanctions on just strategic areas.
The next five years will reveal how effective the Strategy of Denial is.
Phase 5: War?
— S.L. Kanthan (@Kanthan2030) October 16, 2022
If China survives Phase 4, what will happen next?
Either a terrible war or the collapse of the American Empire.
Hard to imagine a compromise where the US peacefully agrees to a multipolar world order.
END