longtermInvestor2022-05-14 23:12:17

http://csinvesting.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/Inflation-Swindles-the-Equity-Investor.pdf

"This heaven-on-earth situation finally was ―discovered‖ in the mid-1960’s by many major investing institutions. But just in as these financial elephants began trampling on one another in their rush to equities, we entered an era of accelerating inflation and higher interest rates. Quite logically, the marking-up process began to reverses itself. Rising interest rates ruthlessly reduced the value of all existing fixed coupon investments. And as long-term corporate bond rates began moving up (eventually reaching the 10 percent area), both the equity return of 12 percent and the reinvestment ―privilege‖ began to look different.

Stocks are quite properly thought of as riskier than bonds. While that equity coupon is more or less fixed over periods of time, it does fluctuate somewhat from year to year. Investor’s attitudes about the future can be affected substantially, although frequently erroneously, by those yearly changes. Stocks are also riskier because they come equipped with infinite maturities. (Even your friendly broker wouldn't have the nerve to peddle a 100-year bond, if he had any available, as ―safe.‖) Because of the additional risk, the natural reaction of investors is to expect an equity return that is comfortable above the bond return—and 12 percent on equity versus, say, 10 percent on bonds issued buy the same corporate universe does not seem to qualify as comfortable. As the spread narrows, equity investors start looking for the exits

But, of course, as a group they can’t get out. All they can achieve is a lot of movement, substantial frictional costs, and a new, much lower level of valuation, reflecting the lessened attractiveness of the 12 percent equity coupon under inflationary conditions. Bond investors have had a succession of shocks over the past decade in the course of discovering that there is not magic attached to any given coupon level: at 6 percent, or 8 percent, or 10 percent, bonds can still collapse in price. Stock investors, who are in general not aware that they too have a ―coupon,‖ are still receiving their education on this point. 

monseigneur2022-05-15 01:58:08
很简单,整篇文章就说明了一个结论,如果利率上升,非成长股票PE必需低到比债卷收益高,因为股票风险更高,需要补偿
monseigneur2022-05-15 01:59:46
这与我以前发帖的说法是完全一致的,也是逻辑上不可避免的结论
monseigneur2022-05-15 02:03:22
而且股票是不会到期的,只能靠下家接手,如果企业前景不佳,股票无法拿回本金;而没有任何企业可以活一千年
longtermInvestor2022-05-15 03:17:25
是这样,看了Buffet这文章关于通胀的坏处就清晰具体了许多。Buffet写文章的时候是1977,大熊市到底是1982.