https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/03/russia-putin-economy-attrition-war/
一名俄罗斯经济领域菁英人士透露，欧洲国家近期对扩大制裁俄罗斯的犹豫让普京相信，西方国家会在“消耗战”中先失去耐性。普京一开始并未料到西方会一致且强烈地制裁俄罗斯，但他现在试著重塑局面，他坚信长期下来俄罗斯会在侵略乌克兰的战争中胜出，因为民主选举的循环就是西方领袖的弱点，俄罗斯相信时间站在他那一边，西方反俄民意“会在一天内反转”。
......俄罗斯联邦安全会议秘书帕特鲁舍夫（Nikolai Patrushev）近日受访表示，俄罗斯并不急著达成对乌克兰军事目标，反而等著看非洲和中东爆发大饥荒，数千万人逃往欧洲。
Putin “believes the West will become exhausted,” said one well-connected Russian billionaire, speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution. Putin had not expected the West’s initially strong and united response, “but now he is trying to reshape the situation, and he believes that in the longer term, he will win,” the billionaire said. Western leaders are vulnerable to election cycles, and “he believes public opinion can flip in one day.”
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“The world is gradually falling into an unprecedented food crisis. Tens of millions of people in Africa or in the Middle East will turn out to be on the brink of starvation — because of the West. In order to survive, they will flee to Europe. I’m not sure Europe will survive the crisis,” Patrushev told Russian state newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta in one of the interviews.