美联储的QT没有达到其预设"配额",加上"Fed Pivot"的投机猜测,间接导致7月份股市上升。事情有其复杂性,但观察人士认为美联储QT的数额将与时间表相匹配
美联储QT夏季平静期 the Fed’s QT summer lull
ZT: The Fed’s QT Isn’t Going to Plan By Chris Anstey August 17, 2022 at 4:00 AM PDT
Next month (September), the Fed is scheduled to step up its so-called quantitative tightening to a maximum pace of $95 billion — running off up to $60 billion in Treasuries, and $35 billion of mortgage securities. Since June, the monthly cap has been a total of $47.5 billion. But last month, the Fed only ran down its portfolio by only about $22 billion.
Analysts at CrossBorder Capital call it “the Fed’s QT summer lull,”, “This has lifted risk assets from the summer doldrums and punctured the dollar’s meteoric rise,”
Much of this is down to the oddities of mortgage-backed securities. For now, the Fed isn’t seeing enough of the bonds maturing to allow for shrinking the portfolio much.
When there are fewer mortgage refinancings, the bonds don’t mature as quickly. And given the jump in mortgage rates in recent months, there’s not a whole lot of refinancing going on. Which leaves more of the bonds on the Fed’s balance sheet.
The disconnect between the Fed’s need to tighten policy to get inflation under control and the somewhat limited role that its second policy lever is playing could argue for stepping things up a gear — by shifting to outright sales of mortgage securities.
Most Fed watchers haven’t expected that to happen until next year at the earliest. But Vice Chair Lael Brainard, in a speech laying out the various options for balance-sheet runoff back in 2017, noted the scenario of using QT as an active policy tool. Evercore ISI analysts said in a note Thursday the Fed “will need to return to the question of active sales at some point.”
ZT: May 04, 2022 Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet
In June 2022, the Fed began reducing its Treasury debt holdings by $30 billion and its mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holdings by $17.5 billion monthly, with plans to double those monthly cuts starting in September
The Committee is prepared to adjust any of the details of its approach to reducing the size of the balance sheet in light of economic and financial developments.
ZT: How Does the Fed Reduce Its Balance Sheet? By Aaron Hankin Updated August 18, 2022
The FOMC said balance sheet reduction would continue until the point, otherwise unspecified, at which the balance sheet is just large enough to efficiently implement monetary policy, primarily by continuing to target the federal funds rate.
Balance Sheet Options: Reinvestment, Runoff and Selling
- The Fed can reduce its balance sheet by electing not to reinvest some or all of the principal repaid when securities mature, a practice known as runoff.
- The Fed can also sell securities ahead of the maturity date.