India-born UK economist and politician Meghnad Desai predicted this week that India and China, currently engaged a high-stakes military standoff on the Doklam plateau near the Sikkim border, could soon come to a full-scale war.
Desai, a member of the British House of Lords (UK's equivalent of the Rajya Sabha) and a known commentator on south Asian affairs, linked the Doklam standoff to events in the South China Sea and predicted that the war would be fought in multiple theatres and would involve the United States, which, Desai said, would be on India's side.
Desai's comments came in an interview that he gave to news agency IANS's Saket Sharma. "Even today, nobody is contemplating that the whole Doklam thing could break anytime. We could be in a full scale war with China within a month. At that stage it will not be controllable. It may come as a surprise, but that is when the defence co-operation of India (with various countries) will bear fruit," Desai says in the interview.
Saying that he cannot exactly predict when and where a full-scale military conflict may break out, Desai pictured a war that would be fought on multiple fronts - from the mountains of the Himalayas to the waters of South China Sea.
"I am not a jyotisi (astrologer). I cannot say what day or date but I think at this time it is very likely that we will be in a state of full-scale war with China very soon. And mind you, on several fronts, not just Doklam. It is just one frontier, they will start from all places, across the northern Himalayas," Desai said.
THE AMERICA ANGLE
Desai, notably, said that the current standoff in Doklam should not be viewed merely as a Indo-Sino face off. He went on to say that how the Doklam standoff would ultimately get resolved depends not just on negotiations between New Delhi and Beijing but on "what happens in the South China Sea".
"All things that follow now will have a lot to do with what happens in the South China Sea. The US has sent out enough signals. If there is war, it will be a US-China war, with India on the US side, in the South China Sea and in the Himalayas. This trio (India, China and the US) is a very combustible mixture right now," Desai told IANS.
Desai was also asked separately and directly whether the United States would stand with India in case a war does break out between the two nuclear-armed Asian countries. "Absolutely," the Padma Bhushan recipient said. "Ultimately, you have to understand that India cannot stand up to China without American help and support. America cannot stand up to China without Indian help. That is the symmetry in this relationship."