韩国与美朝磋商，力图达成和平条约结束朝鲜战争
Treaty to Formally End Korean War Is Being Discussed, South Confirms
CHOE SANG-HUN, JANE PERLEZ
2018年4月19日
[上周，韩国总统的国家安全顾问郑义荣（左二）访问华盛顿。]
上周，韩国总统的国家安全顾问郑义荣（左二）访问华盛顿。 SUSAN WALSH/ASSOCIATED PRESS
SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea confirmed on Wednesday that it had been in talks with American and North Korean officials about negotiating a peace treaty to formally end the Korean War after more than 60 years, as the United States and its ally try to establish a basis for persuading the North to give up its nuclear weapons.
韩国首尔——韩国周三证实，他们一直在就达成一项和平条约、正式结束60多年前爆发的朝鲜战争与美国和朝鲜的官员商谈，因为美国及其盟友试图为说服朝鲜放弃核武器提供一个依据。
Chung Eui-yong, the national security adviser to President Moon Jae-in of South Korea, said he had discussed the matter with John R. Bolton, his newly appointed American counterpart, in Washington last week, as they prepared for the planned talks between each of their countries’ presidents and Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader. South Korean officials said they had also been in talks with the North about a possible treaty.
韩国总统文在寅(Moon Jae-in)的国家安全顾问郑义荣(Chung Eui-yong)说，上周在华盛顿筹备计划中的朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong-un)分别与韩美总统的会晤时，他已与新上任的美国国家安全顾问约翰·R·博尔顿(John R. Bolton)讨论了此事。韩国官方称，他们也在就可能的条约与朝鲜商谈。
Mr. Kim told Mr. Chung and another South Korean official last month that the North was willing to give up nuclear arms if it received security guarantees. In the past, the North has said that a peace treaty and the normalization of ties with the United States would be among the security guarantees it would require in exchange for surrendering its nuclear program.
金正恩上月对郑义荣和另一名韩国官员表示，如果安全得到保证，朝鲜愿意放弃核武器。过去，朝鲜曾表示，要得到包括和平条约和与美国关系正常化在内的安全保证才放弃核计划。
Referring to his meetings with Trump administration officials, Mr. Chung said on Wednesday, “We held in-depth discussions on various ways of how to end hostilities and eventually establish a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, how to address the North Korean concerns and how to ensure a bright future for the North if it makes the right choice.”
提到与特朗普政府官员的会晤时，郑义荣周三说，“我们就结束敌对状态，最终在朝鲜半岛上建立一个和平政权，解决朝鲜的担忧，以及在朝鲜做出正确的选择后确保其前途光明的各种途经，进行了深入的讨论。”
“Mr. Bolton made it clear to me that he will do his best as an honest broker in successfully implementing President Trump’s peace policy on the Korean Peninsula,” Mr. Chung added.
“博尔顿明确向我表示，他会竭尽全力当好诚实的中间人，成功地执行特朗普总统在朝鲜半岛的和平政策，”郑义荣说。
[位于非军事区内的“停战村”板门店的韩国士兵。]
位于非军事区内的“停战村”板门店的韩国士兵。 JUNG YEON-JE/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES
Mr. Trump said on Tuesday that a peace treaty was being discussed and that he approved of the idea. The president, who confirmed on Wednesday that he had sent Mike Pompeo, the C.I.A. director, to meet with Mr. Kim, has said he would meet with the North Korean leader in May or early June, after Mr. Kim’s April 27 talks with South Korea’s president, Mr. Moon, on the Koreas’ border.
特朗普周二称正在讨论一项和平条约，他批准了这个设想。他说他将在5月或6月初与朝鲜领导人会面。在那之前，金正恩将于4月27日在朝韩边境同韩国总统会晤。特朗普周三还证实，曾派中情局(CIA)局长迈克·庞皮欧(Mike Pompeo)同金正恩会面。
Treaty Would Have to Involve U.S. and China
条约必须有美国和中国的参与
[郑义荣说，特朗普总统的国家安全顾问约翰·R·博尔顿“明确向我表示，他会竭尽全力当好诚实的中间人，成功地执行特朗普总统在朝鲜半岛上的和平政策”。]
郑义荣说，特朗普总统的国家安全顾问约翰·R·博尔顿“明确向我表示，他会竭尽全力当好诚实的中间人，成功地执行特朗普总统在朝鲜半岛上的和平政策”。 TOM BRENNER/THE NEW YORK TIMES
The Korean War was halted in 1953 with a truce and has never been formally brought to a close. China fought on the North’s side and the United States on the South’s, and both are signatories to the armistice, along with the North; South Korea, at the time, refused to sign it. Any peace treaty would therefore have to involve Washington and Beijing, South Korean officials acknowledged on Wednesday.
朝鲜战争1953年以休战的形式停火，但从未正式结束。中美两国当时分别站在朝鲜和韩国一方，两国和朝鲜都是休战协议的签署国，韩国当时拒绝在协议上签字。韩国官员周三承认，因此任何和平条约都必须有华盛顿和北京的参与。
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China said on Wednesday that it wanted to play a positive role in formally ending the war, in which an estimated three million Chinese soldiers fought. But it stopped short of endorsing the idea of a treaty, which is likely to involve extensive negotiations and would require the recognition of North Korea by the United States.
中国在周三表示，希望在正式结束朝鲜战争一事上发挥积极作用。据估计，有300万中国士兵参加了朝鲜战争。但中国这次并没有对签署和平条约表示支持。和平条约可能涉及大量谈判，并要求美国承认朝鲜。
“China’s attitude is open and supportive to any peaceful means to resolve the Korean Peninsula issue through consultations,” Hua Chunying, spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said when asked at a news briefing in Beijing about supporting a possible treaty.
“我们对所有有利于通过对话协商以和平方式解决半岛问题的努力都持积极支持和开放态度，”中国外交部发言人华春莹在北京的例行记者会上说。
China has promoted the idea of a peace treaty from time to time over the past two decades, to little avail. This time, analysts said on Wednesday, Beijing’s enthusiasm for the idea is likely to be tempered by rising tensions with the Trump administration over trade and Taiwan. Chinese officials are livid over Washington’s move this week to prevent American suppliers from selling parts to the Chinese tech giant ZTE, they said.
过去20年里，中国不时宣传签订和平条约的主意，但收效甚微。分析人士周三表示，这一次，北京对这个主意的热情，可能会受与特朗普政府在贸易和台湾问题上紧张关系不断升级的影响。他们说，中国官方对华盛顿本周禁止美国供应商向中国科技巨头中兴通讯出售零部件的举动大为恼火。
“If the two countries cannot settle the trade issues, that will have a significant impact on China’s attitude toward helping the United States on North Korea,” said Cheng Xiaohe, a North Korea expert at the Beijing-based Renmin University. “The ongoing situation with trade is complicating and undermining cooperation.”
“如果两国无法解决贸易问题，会严重影响中国帮助美国解决朝鲜问题的态度，”位于北京的人民大学朝鲜问题专家成晓河说。“不断发展的贸易形势让合作变得复杂，破坏合作。”
At the same time, Mr. Cheng said, China’s relations with North Korea have rapidly warmed in the wake of Kim Jong-un’s surprise visit to Beijing last month. That could give China leverage with North Korea against the United States as Washington works out the terms of the meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim.
与此同时，成晓河说，在金正恩上月出人意料地访问北京后，中国与朝鲜的关系迅速升温。在华盛顿制定特朗普与金正恩会面的条件时，这可能会让中国掌握用朝鲜对付美国的砝码。
South Korean officials said on Wednesday that they hoped Mr. Kim and Mr. Moon, during their meeting next week, could jointly announce a willingness to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula and ban military hostilities there, as a precursor to a peace treaty.
韩国官方周三表示，他们希望在下周会面期间，金正恩和文在寅能共同宣布朝鲜半岛无核化的意愿，并禁止在该地区进行军事对抗，以此作为和平条约的前身。
But Mr. Cheng and other Chinese analysts expressed skepticism that a peace treaty would be signed anytime soon. “If the United States is to sign with North Korea, it needs to do several things,” Mr. Cheng said. “It has to talk to China, and the United States has to recognize North Korea diplomatically.”
但成晓河和其他一些中国分析人士对在近期签署和平条约表示怀疑。“要和朝鲜签约，美国需要做几件事，”成晓河说。“必须与中国谈，而且美国必须在外交上承认朝鲜。”
Only countries with diplomatic relations can sign a treaty, he said. “A treaty is not a memorandum or a communiqué.”
只有有外交关系的国家才能签署条约，他说。“条约不是备忘录和公报。”
What the Conditions Might Be
可能会有什么条件
Some analysts in South Korea have suggested that Mr. Moon and Mr. Kim could agree to withdraw weapons and troops from the 2.5-mile-wide Demilitarized Zone, which was created with the armistice and still divides the Koreas. Despite its name, the zone is the world’s most heavily armed border. Although the armistice allows only rifles and pistols within the area, both sides have deployed much heavier weapons and operate guard posts inside the zone.
韩国一些分析人士指出，文在寅和金正恩有可能同意从2.5英里（约合4公里）宽的非军事区撤出武器和军队。由停战协议设立的非军事区至今仍然分裂着朝鲜半岛。虽然有着非军事区的名字，这里却是世界上戒备最为森严的边界。尽管停战协议只允许该区域出现步枪和手枪，但双方都部署了重型武器，还在区域内设有守卫哨所。
In the past, the North’s conditions for its denuclearization have included the withdrawal of the 28,500 American troops stationed in South Korea, a demand that Washington and Seoul have adamantly rejected. But Mr. Kim has recently indicated that he could be more flexible about the American military presence in the South if his country no longer felt threatened by it, according to officials and analysts in Seoul.
在过去，朝鲜无核化的条件包括要求美国撤出2.85万名驻韩士兵，华盛顿和首尔对此都坚决反对。但是据首尔的官员和分析人士称，金正恩最近表示，如果朝鲜不再因此感觉受到威胁，他对于美国在韩国的军事存在可以更加灵活。
[上月，中国国家主席习近平（左）和朝鲜领导人金正恩在北京。]
上月，中国国家主席习近平（左）和朝鲜领导人金正恩在北京。 KOREAN CENTRAL NEWS AGENCY, VIA AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES
“We think that North Korea is more realistic about the security environment on the Korean Peninsula,” Mr. Chung said on Wednesday, referring to Mr. Kim’s decision not to object to recent joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States. The North has typically used such drills as a pretext to conduct weapons tests and reject dialogue.
“我们认为朝鲜对朝鲜半岛的安全环境持更为现实的态度，”郑义荣周三在谈及金正恩不反对近期美韩军演的决定时说。朝鲜往往会把这类军事演习当做他们进行武器试验、拒绝对话的借口。
In 2000, Mr. Kim’s late father and predecessor, Kim Jong-il, told the visiting South Korean president Kim Dae-jung that he could support the American military presence as a peacekeeping force in the region, according to South Korean officials who attended their meeting.
据当时参与了会晤的韩国官员称，金正恩已故的父亲、前任领袖金正日(Kim Jong-il)曾于2000年告诉来访的韩国总统金大中(Kim Dae-jung)，他可以支持美军的军事存在，作为地区维和部队。
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“I am quite sure that if relations between North Korea and the United States improve, the North will not demand the withdrawal of American troops in signing the peace treaty,” Lee Jong-seok, a former South Korean unification minister, said during a forum on Wednesday.
“我相当肯定，如果朝鲜与美国之间的关系有所改善，朝鲜不会在签署和平条约时要求美国撤军，”韩国前统一部长李钟奭(Lee Jong-seok)周三在一个论坛上说道。
‘There Could Be a Partial Withdrawal’
“可能会部分撤军”
Formally ending the war would not necessarily mean that Mr. Kim would demand that all American troops be removed, said John Delury, a professor at Yonsei University in Seoul. “There could be a partial withdrawal,” he said. “Remember, all this maneuvering is going on while the United States and South Korea are conducting joint military exercises.”
首尔延世大学(Yonsei University)的鲁乐汉(John Delury)教授表示，正式结束这场战争并不一定意味着金正恩会要求美国撤出全部军队。“可能会部分撤军，”他说。“别忘了，所有这些权宜操纵的同时，美韩还在搞联合军演。”
Still, Mr. Kim seems likely to demand at least a major reduction in troops, said Hugh White, a senior military strategist who worked at the Australian Department of Defense and is now a professor at Australian National University. One outcome, he said, could be a substantial troop withdrawal in exchange for Mr. Kim’s scrapping his intercontinental ballistic missile program.
但曾为澳大利亚国防部工作的高级军事战略专家、现任澳大利亚国立大学(Australian National University)教授的休·怀特(Hugh White)表示，金正恩似乎有可能至少要求大幅减少驻军。他说，为了换取金正恩停止洲际弹道导弹计划，结果之一可能是大量撤军。
Such an agreement could appeal to Mr. Trump with his “America First” perspective, Mr. White said. From that point of view, “it could make sense to withdraw from Korea if in return Kim Jong-un scrapped the ICBM program and thus ceased to threaten the continental United States,” he said.
怀特表示，此类协议或能吸引持“美国优先”观点的特朗普。从这个角度来看，“如果回报是金正恩废除除洲际弹道导弹计划，并因此不再威胁到美国大陆，那么从韩国撤军也是有道理的，”他说。
That, Mr. White noted, would transform the American military presence in Asia. “It would be a big win for China,” he said.
怀特指出，这将改变美国在亚洲的军事存在。“这对中国来说是大胜，”他说。
Choe Sang-Hun自首尔、Jane Perlez自北京报道。
翻译：纽约时报中文网