中国对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的反应将颠覆世界秩序—by Brian Bennet
Jake Sullivan looks flushed and his jaw is clenched. Across from President Joe Biden’s National Security Adviser, over a row of ferns at a matching table draped in blue cloth, sits China’s senior foreign affairs official Yang Jiechi, his mouth frozen in a sanguine smile. The official photograph released by China’s state-run news agency of the two men sitting face to face on March 14 in Rome is a snapshot of how Beijing wants to be seen at this moment as China’s sometime ally Russia continues its deadly invasion of Ukraine: as a confident, emerging power facing a frustrated and worried United States.
杰克·沙利文脸色涨红，下巴紧闭。在乔·拜登总统的国家安全顾问对面，在一张铺着蓝布的配套桌子上，一排蕨类植物上坐着中国高级外交事务官员杨洁篪，嘴角挂着乐观的微笑。中国官方通讯社发布的两人于 3 月 14 日在罗马面对面坐下的官方照片，反映了北京此时希望如何被视为中国曾经的盟友俄罗斯继续其对乌克兰的致命入侵：一个自信的新兴大国，面对沮丧和担忧的美国。
The reality is more complicated. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is hoping China’s leader Xi Jinping will see Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as another step forward for the two countries’ broader effort to push back against the world’s democracies. Russia is courting China’s support of its assault on Ukraine and hopes China will prop up Moscow’s faltering economy battered by sanctions. But if China further backs Russia’s aggression with significant monetary help or—even more unsettling—weapons, the blowback from the U.S. and European countries could threaten China’s long-term effort to rise as the dominant global power.
现实更加复杂。俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京希望中国领导人习近平将俄罗斯入侵乌克兰视为两国更广泛努力反击世界民主国家的又一步。俄罗斯正在争取中国支持其对乌克兰的攻击，并希望中国能够支撑莫斯科因制裁而步履蹒跚的经济。但如果中国进一步支持俄罗斯的侵略，提供大量资金援助，甚至更令人不安的武器，来自美国和欧洲国家的反击可能会威胁到中国作为全球主导力量崛起的长期努力。
What China decides to do about Russia’s needs could mark a turning point in both the war in Ukraine and U.S.-China relations, and the outcome of China’s choice will define what a new global order looks like. Will China continue to try to reshape the current global economy in its image by participating in it? Or will China join Russia behind a new Iron Curtain of sanctions, cut off from the U.S. and Europe and left to navigate a new monetary system and trading framework?
中国对俄罗斯需求的决定可能标志着乌克兰战争和美中关系的转折点，而中国选择的结果将决定全球新秩序的面貌。中国是否会继续尝试通过参与来重塑当前的全球经济形象？或者，中国会加入俄罗斯的新制裁铁幕，与美国和欧洲隔绝，然后离开去驾驭新的货币体系和贸易框架？
“This is really a crucial moment and potentially a turning point,” says Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. “They really are siding with the Russians. They are more closely aligned with the Russians than they’ve ever been.”
“这确实是一个关键时刻，也可能是一个转折点，”美国德国马歇尔基金亚洲项目主任邦妮·格拉泽说。“他们真的站在俄罗斯一边。他们与俄罗斯人的关系比以往任何时候都更加紧密。”
China and Russia have occasionally had a strained relationship over the past several decades. Moscow and Beijing fought a border war in 1969 along the edge of China’s northeast territory, and the two countries have never developed strong person-to-person ties across their shared 2,500 miles of border. As China has risen in global influence, Russia’s leadership have resented the prospect of becoming a client state of Beijing.
在过去的几十年里，中国和俄罗斯的关系偶尔会变得紧张。莫斯科和北京于 1969 年在中国东北领土的边缘打了一场边境战争，两国从未在共同的 2500 英里边界上发展出牢固的人与人之间的联系。随着中国在全球影响力的上升，俄罗斯领导层对成为北京附庸国的前景感到不满。
But China’s leaders are now leaning toward Moscow much more heavily than they did when trying to appear neutral following Putin’s seizure of Crimea in 2014. When Xi and Putin met at the opening of the Beijing Olympics on Feb. 4, the two agreed their countries’ relationship would have “no limits” and “no wavering,” according to a Chinese government description of the meeting. That was two weeks before Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine.
但与 2014 年普京夺取克里米亚后试图表现中立时相比，中国领导人现在更倾向于莫斯科。当习近平和普京在 2 月 4 日北京奥运会开幕式上会面时，两人就两国达成了一致。根据中国政府对此次会议的描述，两国关系将“没有限制”和“没有动摇”。那是俄罗斯坦克进入乌克兰的两周前。
This has presented the Biden Administration with a delicate and growing challenge in how to talk to China about its assistance to Russia. The seven hours of talks between Sullivan and Yang inside the Rome Cavalieri hotel were “intense” and “reflecting the gravity of the moment,” a senior Administration official said, adding that the two officials had an “extensive conversation” about Russia’s war in Ukraine. Sullivan made it clear that the U.S. and European allies would consider cutting off Chinese financial institutions involved in backing Russia’s war financially, said a person familiar with the discussions.
这给拜登政府带来了一个微妙且日益严峻的挑战，即如何与中国谈论其对俄罗斯的援助。一位高级政府官员说，沙利文和杨在罗马卡瓦列里酒店内进行了 7 个小时的会谈，“激烈”，“反映了当下的严重性”，并补充说，两位官员就俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争进行了“广泛对话” . 一位熟悉讨论情况的人士说，沙利文明确表示，美国和欧洲盟国将考虑切断在财政上支持俄罗斯战争的中国金融机构。
Broadly, Xi Jinping has calculated that the U.S. is in decline and Western democracies have failed, Glaser says, and that Russia is one ally that can work alongside China to create a different international system that’s more favorable. But with Russia’s violent effort to take Ukraine, that assessment comes with considerable risk for China. If Russia emerges weaker from its war in Ukraine, and China backed it, China could suffer major economic backlash. China relies heavily on its trading relationships with European countries and has worked hard to prevent Europe from restricting trade. “That would be huge, if China ends up with a vast amount of countries around the world that are aligned against it because it has sided with Russia,” Glaser says.
格拉泽说，从广义上讲，习近平已经计算出美国正在衰落，西方民主国家已经失败，而俄罗斯是一个可以与中国合作建立一个更有利的不同国际体系的盟友。但随着俄罗斯对乌克兰采取暴力行动，这种评估给中国带来了相当大的风险。如果俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中变得更弱，而中国支持它，中国可能会遭受重大的经济反弹。中国高度依赖与欧洲国家的贸易关系，并努力防止欧洲限制贸易。格拉泽说：“如果中国最终因为站在俄罗斯一边而与世界上大量的国家结盟，那将是巨大的。”
Convincing European powers to punish China could be a tall order for President Biden, who’s had to work hard to convince Europe to limit its financial and energy ties to Russia. Biden is set to travel to Europe next week to meet with NATO allies, and China’s degree of support for Russia will surely come up in those meetings. U.S. officials want to prepare allies for how to respond if China begins contributing more financially or militarily to Russia. Meanwhile, Xi showed the importance he puts on keeping lines of communication open with European powers when he joined a video call with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on March 8 to talk about the war in Ukraine.
说服欧洲大国惩罚中国对拜登总统来说可能是一项艰巨的任务，他不得不努力说服欧洲限制其与俄罗斯的金融和能源联系。拜登下周将前往欧洲与北约盟国会面，中国对俄罗斯的支持程度肯定会在这些会议中体现出来。如果中国开始在财政或军事上对俄罗斯做出更多贡献，美国官员希望盟国做好应对准备。与此同时，习近平在 3 月 8 日与法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙和德国总理奥拉夫·舒尔茨举行视频通话讨论乌克兰战争时，表明了他对与欧洲大国保持沟通渠道畅通的重要性。
This moment has put on a collision course two competing objectives of China’s foreign policy, says David Shullman, a former senior U.S. intelligence analyst on East Asia. China wants Russia to be its partner in building a new global order, but it also wants to be viewed as a “responsible power” that can someday lead the current one, or at least be at the center of a new system of global governance and connectivity, Shullman says. If China provides Russia with drones, surface to air missiles, or other weapons, “It would very clearly demonstrate that we have a break in what we expected out of the world order,” Shullman says. “It would be clear that China had very firmly sided with Russia against the democratic world and against developed democracies.”
美国前东亚高级情报分析师大卫舒尔曼说，这一刻让中国外交政策的两个相互竞争的目标发生了冲突。中国希望俄罗斯成为其建立全球新秩序的伙伴，但也希望被视为有朝一日可以引领当前秩序的“负责任大国”，或者至少成为新的全球治理体系的中心，连通性，舒尔曼说。如果中国向俄罗斯提供无人机、地对空导弹或其他武器，“这将非常清楚地表明，我们对世界秩序的预期有所突破，”舒尔曼说。“很明显，中国坚定地站在俄罗斯一边，反对民主世界和发达的民主国家。”