也看到一个现象：那些靠投资房地产想发财的SB们要完蛋了。
House prices fall againChris Zappone
February 2, 2009 - 4:35PM
Melbourne led the nation in the drop in house prices over the past quarter.
The city fared the worst in the nation, with house prices sinking 1.7% over the quarter, compared with a dip of only 0.3% in Sydney.
Nationally, home prices fell 0.8% in the December quarter, following a revised 2.4% drop in the previous three months, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Property: sellers reject auctions
Property reporter Natalie Craig says private sales are on the increase as sellers continue to be on their guard.
ANZ economist Alex Joiner, who noted Melbourne's house prices gained 21% in 2007 and dropped 3% in 2008, said Melbourne's downturn was understandable.
"If you've owned your house for a few years, you've still made quite a bit of money,''
he said. "It's not like the stock market.''
Dr Joiner said drops in capital cities that benefited most from the boom were easing a little bit more now, he said, referring to Western Australia and Queensland.
Home prices in Victoria and NSW did not have commodities money pouring into them, they way they did in Queensland and WA in the past five years, he said.
However, home prices in Melbourne, with its diversified economy are likely to hold up better than in Sydney, he said.
"NSW is obviously going to soften quite a bit because it's more of a financial service sector city,'' Dr Joiner said, referring to the lay-offs triggered by the global financial crisis which has felled banks and savaged profits.
"So Melbourne is probably going to perform a little bit better than Sydney. And that will transfer through to the property markets as well.''
Government efforts stabilise market
Overall, house prices fell less than expected, suggesting government efforts to prop up the industry in the face of the global recession are gaining traction.
Nonetheless, weaker home prices mean the Reserve Bank is likely to slash official rates again when it meets tomorrow.
For the year, house prices lost 3.3%, down from a revised 1.6% gain in the September quarter, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Analysts expected a 2.4% contraction in the annual number.
Falls across the board
Other capital cities saw their prices drop, with Perth losing 0.9% and Hobart giving up 1%. Bucking the trend were Darwin, which gained 1.6%, Canberra with added 0.7% and Adelaide edged up 0.3%.
The Federal Government, along with the RBA, has focused on jumpstarting the economy in recent months as the global recession begins to drag on local growth.
Last year the Federal Government announced a $10.4 billion stimulus package, aimed in part at resuscitating the housing industry. Analysts expect the government to unveil another aid package in coming weeks.
''Government measures have helped to limit the damage'' to home prices, said economist Nik Bhattacharyya of Moody's Economy.com.
But he said the slumping home prices were't exactly good news. "House prices have fallen across the board."
The RBA is expected to cut the official cash rate tomorrow by 1 percentage point (100 basis points), taking it to an all-time record low of 3.25% in an effort to keep the economy expanding in the face of global recession.
"We expect the RBA to deliver another 100 basis points cut to the cash rate tomorrow," said JPMorgan economist Helen Kevans. "If the RBA delivers on our expectations, it will have delivered 450bp worth of rate cuts since last September."
Further drops ahead
"Our forecast is for house prices to fall 10% in 2009, faring much better than most other countries," she said.
"Larger falls in house prices may materialise, although the acute shortage of new homes and accelerating population growth - mainly on the back of higher skilled migration - will provide support for house prices in some cities."
Manufacturing slumps
In further gloomy news for the economy, a reading of manufacturing activity contracted for the eighth month, to 36.6 in January, as businesses ran down inventories and there was little demand to restock, according to the Australian Industry Group's performance of manufacturing index.
The economy is expected to shrink by 0.2% in 2009, according to revised forecast by the International Monetary Fund released over the weekend, down from expectations of 2.2% growth over the same period.
czappone@fairfax.com.au
BusinessDay
czappone@fairfax.com.au
BusinessDay
Global crisis ripped $115bn hole in budget
Mex Cooper
February 2, 2009 - 2:47PM
The global economic crisis has ripped a $115 billion hole in the budget, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd announced today.
Mr Rudd said the budget would this year slide into deficit as the financial crisis took its toll on the Government's tax receipts.
He said the Government would "very soon" announce the expected deficit.
Mr Rudd said the Federal Government was committed to further action to protect jobs and economic growth in Australia as the country faced its worse financial crisis in 75 years.
"The impact of the global recession and the impact of the halving of China's economic growth will cost the Australian budget some $115 billion dollars resulting in a temporary deficit," he said.
"This is not something we desire. It is, however, the truth."
Mr Rudd said the Government was faced with either spending to boost the economy or watching the jobless queues grow.
"Where we not to act and not to act by way of stimulus to the economy ... the problem that we face now would be even much worse, that is the bottom line," he said.
He said he would try and move "heaven and earth" and take "whatever action is necessary" to support economic growth and jobs as six of Australia's top 10 trading partners sunk into recession.
Mr Rudd and Treasurer Wayne Swan ruled out any increase in income tax.
"Nothing much takes my breath away ... but the idea that we whack up taxes is one of them, " Mr Rudd said.
He said the a second stimulus package would be announced soon.
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