本周economist 有一篇很有意思的短文”The drag from lags“ 乐山乐水的小姑娘2022-10-16 15:49:04

1. "Lags beween monetary policy and infalation can last as long as two years."  现在升息到通胀下降的时间差可能很长，不要bank on 通胀peak and then hope stock market turns

2. "Fed officials expect to shift from raising to cutting rates in 2024 and 2025. But they also expet inflation to coitinue to recede in both years."  生息 -》 平台 -》降息，要很长时间

3. "Doves worry that excessive tightening will lead to a bad recession. Hawks fear that a premature halt will lead to continuted bad inflation. Both worry the Fed will get its timing wrong again. " 困难时期在前面

给FED成员每人发一年到期的SPY. Option, 问题就解决了一半多……

这帮孙子。年轻人躺平是不可能的，谁来为资本家扛活？所以，定时定期掏你的钱袋子是必须的，大家继续扛活吧。