Key Political Players That Will Determine Fate of Comprehensive Immigration Reform (CIR) Legislation
According to a leading observer of the American politics and immigration, the Republican leadership of the Senate feels that they have to open the bill up to amendments, presumably from more conservative Republicans who would try to water down some of these compromises and move it closer to the House bill, while the Democrats would not want it amended as politically the Democrats would have an incentive not to pass any legislation that accomodates too much the convervative position of the House and share the blame of the bad legislation with the Republicans and thus would rather like to use it as a campaign issue against the Republicans.
Even if CIR passes the Senate, the gaps between the Senate bill and the House bill are enormous, and eventually the Senate and House Conference Committee will play a key role. However, under the Republican Congress, the Democrates have been shut out of conference committees between the House and Senate in the past, and they will be very wary of supporting a bill when they might get shut out of a very major conference on reconciling two very different bills.
All in all, it all boils down to the November Midterm National Election politics. The dynamics of how all of these party politics will play out in the CIR legislation will eventually be affected by the public opinion as a swing vote between the conservatives and the Hispanic politics. Upcoming Senate action this month will play only a small part of the political process, which will be followed by more difficult uphill battle between the Republicans and the Democrats in reaching a compromise between the Senate pro-legalization bill and the House Sensenbrenner bill, both of which, as they stand now, are unacceptable in the public opinion and the party politics. Depending on towards which direction the compromise will lean, either party may play as a devil to kill the legislation. At this point, no one knows which point in the spectrum of compromise will meet the needs of both parties' political interests and lead to a successful conclusion of the compromise process. Because of the nature of the legal employment-based immigration reform, it will play a small role in the CIR legislation process, certainly not as a key player. In this regard, the employment-based immigrant community may take a back seat in this political drama and feel helpless until the curtain of the drama is pull down. That is where the legal immigrant community has been experiencing frustration and pains and aches, feeling impotent.