For EB2 Chinese whose PD is after Oct. 05, here is the years you will wait for before receiving the GC: My calculation shows 4-5 years
From the latest info of BEC, 142418 cases have not been processed. From the Nov. 2005 Bec, 50,000 cards have been issued out of the 100000 cases processed. I used the statistics data, decision tree and subjective propobility rate to process the data and get the following information:
Assumptions: 1. 30% chance 50% of the 142418 will be approved, 70% chance 75% of the 142418 will be approved.
2. 30% chance that 10% poeple are EB2,70% chance that 25% people are EB2.
3. 30% chance that 20% people are Chinese, 70% chance that 30% are Chinese.
4. 50% chance that 1.5 people will file 485 for the LC approved, 50% chance that 2 people will file 485 for the LC.
Then the total people that will file 485 due to BEC will be 9950. If there are 3000 quota each year, the BEC unprocessed will use up 3 years quota. If you want to see the calculation, let me know your e-mail address.