转一个亲俄人士宣称俄罗斯正在按计划胜利侵乌的分析 枪迷球迷2022-03-10 17:01:47

对一切信息存疑。 下面的信息和分析显然来自是亲俄方， 宣称俄军仍在按计划取得侵乌胜利。仅供参考。

 

Here is Saker’s analysis of the Russian timeline so far:

• Dismembering and disorganizing the Ukrainian military was achieved in the estimated 24 hours
• Closing the operational cauldron behind the Ukie forces in the Donbass: achieved in 2 weeks (in fact, it is even better, the Russians are now cutting the Ukie forces in the Donbass into two smaller cauldrons, see map here: (you see TWO blue circles, not one anymore!)
• Within the same two weeks, Russia took control of the entire Sea of Azov coast and much of the Black Sea Coast, which is now either under Russian control, or under direct Black Sea Fleet blockage.
• Also within those two weeks, Russia basically encircled Kiev.  This map shows you the situation around Kiev as it was today.  While the situation on the south side is still unstable, combat operations are taking place, what is certain is this: only small, secondary, roads and open terrain are left to escape the city.  Like everywhere else (see below), the Russians have offered humanitarian corridors and promised safety and good treatment to all Ukrainian POWs (Nazis are excluded, as are foreign mercenaries, they will be interrogated and shot).  But to no avail, the Nazi delegation cannot agree to anything because their bosses in DC tell them to fight down to the last Ukrainian (as for the Anglos, Polaks & Co. they announce Russian defeats everywhere and every day, but for some unfathomable reason, they all are safely tucked away in Lvov or even Warsaw. 

So here is what the Russians may have decided:

• Begin with a tactical assault against the Ukie forces in the Donbass
• Bypass all Ukie fortifications and cities which are not willing to surrender
• Develop your tactical assault into an operational one by encircling the ENTIRE Ukrainian force in the Donbass
• Move along the coast to liberate Mariupol (tactical), then continue further west (operational development)
• Clear the Ukrainian skies and quickly achieve air supremacy thereby dramatically reducing the ability of the Nazis to run, the Ukrainians keep their supply lines open.
• Once the skies are safe (not so much from Ukie aircraft, but from their air defenses), fully engage your rotary and fixed-wing aviation for reconnaissance, close air support, move forces, etc.
• Block the main Ukie Nazi centers: Mariupol (combats well inside the city), Nikolaev (combats all around the city), in  Kharkov (blocked), Chernigov (blocked), Odessa (almost blocked) and Kiev (almost blocked).  Then wait for the city to surrender.  For that, the city would have to get rid of the local Nazis first, of course.  If they cannot do that, then use specialized urban assault to liberate the city and kill all the Nazis, but their orders should be to save their own lives before saving anybody else.  So this implies a very slow and deliberate gradual movement in the depth of the city.
• Next, destroy the long-range artillery which STILL strikes at the LDRN from several locations (Avdeevka).  Then blockade the remaining forces and wait for them to surrender.  Strongly urge the Ukrainian commanders to avoid a useless carnage and lay down arms.  If all else fails, say within a week or so, wipe them out.  Literally and quickly: once the entire Ukronazi controlled areas are declared “open fire zones” the really heavy Russian hardware will take less than 24 hours to completely liberate the entire Donbass.
• Then liberate the south first, that is the full Black Sea coast.
• Then begin to move forces towards the general direction of central Ukraine (south of Kiev) and wait for more strategic-level decisions by the Russian General Staff and the Kremlin

消息满天飞，战场形势总会反应在谈判桌上，看看双方主张的变化就知道真实的情形了