Daily recorded infections have more than halved since mid-July. Few researchers anticipated such a sharp decline, and they are now struggling to interpret it.
Scientists are scratching their heads over the precipitous decline in daily COVID-19 infections in the United Kingdom following their rapid rise earlier in the year. Officially recorded new cases more than halved in just two weeks: from a high of 54,674 on 17 July to 22,287 on 2 August.
“Nobody really knows what’s going on,” says epidemiologist John Edmunds at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). In particular, it’s not clear whether this sudden trend indicates that the peak of the third wave has passed, or whether it is a blip caused by complex social factors.