根据以下劳工积压处理中心最新数据
目前还有176000积压待审批的劳工申请.
这些申请的时间大部分在2003年以后
按照已经处理的180000 件申请中有 50% WITHDRAW
剩余176000份申请中,合理估计有效申请案件大概:85000
这些人大部分应该是先拿H1B,再申请劳工卡
中国人历年占的H1-B名额比例都超过10%
所以在积压待审批的劳工申请中,我们中国人应该有8500个左右
这其中,假设EB2/EB3各占50%(事实上EB2应该占多点是合理猜测)
这也就是说,
在今后1年中,将会有8500个批准的劳工申请等待提交485
他们(包括主审请人和家属)所需配额肯定大于10000
而USCIS分配给中国的职业移民年配额(包括主审请人和家属)小于10000个(7%*140,000)
由此可见
FY2007 的10000个中国配额恐怕无法满足从BEC出来的申请人和家属
EB2排期:
现在EB2的排期(04/2005)已经超过BEC的截止日期
再加上2005/10后PERM申请(及其140)大量快速批准
所以EB2排期在今后一年中很难有大幅前进到2005/10 后面的可能
EB3排期:
现在EB3的排期就很遥远(05/2002)
再加上原来猜测的245i(04/2001)的申请并不多
所以EB3排期在今后一年中前进1~2年大有可能,最坏也应该比上一年前进速度快才合理
its just my guess,don't take it too seriously.
（abridged from www.immigration-law.com）
AILA-DOL Liaison Meeting Minute of 09/12/2006 gives update on the BEC backlog processing as follows:
Status of Processing of Cases:
Total Cases=362,000
Pending Cases=approximately 176,000 (45-day letters for all of these pending cases with a few exceptions have been issued)
Completed Cases=approximately 182,000 cases. These cases are completed in the following fashions:
50%=Closed or Withdrawn or Closed for No Response to 45-Day Letters
50%=Either Approved or Denied
At the front-end, the cases are processed on FIFO based on the priority date, but adjudication is done on FIFO based on the order of responses to the requests.
Processing Times may be posted on the website in the near future.