In fact, ARMs have helped people get into homes with a more affordable payment since at least the early 1990s. Homeowners often refinanced later into a fixed loan. And they were common. The share of borrowers applying for one went as high as 35% in December 1994, when the Federal Reserve tightened policy preemptively when it saw a potential rise in inflation and the 30-year mortgage rate jumped from just under 7% to over 9%.
Overall, the long-term ARM share average is 12%, according to Joel Kan, associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting at MBA, who also pointed out that three-quarters of ARMs originated today have five-, seven-, or 10-year fixed periods before their initial rate adjusts.
“The borrower has a longer horizon with those ARMs to build equity,” Kan said, noting the longer timeframe reduces foreclosure risk and gives borrowers a better chance to refinance.
Underwriting today is also stricter, similar to the 1990s, when limiting rate adjustments was the “hot topic” of the day, according to Gaines. After the financial crisis in the aughts, Congress rewrote the rules on who could get an adjustable-rate mortgage as part of the massive Dodd-Frank Act that reformed the financial system and added more oversight of the industry.
So today’s ARMs are more benign ones, these experts reassured me, and — at 10% of applications — still lag in popularity than in the run-up to the Great Recession when as many as a third of borrowers were applying for one in 2004 and 2005. Gaines thinks we can hit that ARM share again as rates head toward 7%, where he predicted this summer they would go by the end of the year. Even so, there’s no reason for deja vu.
“Right now, I think it’s just fine as long as the lenders continue as they have in the last decade to apply reasonable due diligence and underwriting standards as they did in the 90s,” Gaines said. “We didn’t have problems until they started making loans to people who shouldn’t have them.”
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