2022 下半年市场展望：能源板块最好，公用事业最差 价值投资者2022-08-22 12:26:29
2H 2022 market outlook: energy sector most attractive, utility least
2022 下半年市场展望：能源板块最好，公用事业最差
摘要：现在是展望2022下半年的好时机。美联储最近的公告说明了今年下半年的所需利率，许多风向标股票发布了它们的收益。我们认为以能源精选 SPDR ETF（XLE）为代表的能源行业是目前最有吸引力的行业。相比之下，房地产投资信托基金和公用事业等传统 "避险 "行业的估值风险太大。
我们制作了以下的市场行业仪表板来为市场及其主要行业把脉。请通过以下链接下载或导出谷歌表格。Market Sector Dashboard.
Summary: Now is a good time to form an outlook for the 2nd half of 2022. The Fed’s recent announcement has provided the needed rates clarify for the remainder of the year, and many bellwether stocks issued their earnings. And we see the energy sectors represented by the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) to be the most attractive sector currently. In contrast, I see too much valuation risk in traditional “safe-haven” sectors such as REITs and utilities.
We use the following market sector dashboard to put our finger on the pulse of the market and its major sectors. Feel free to download or export the google-sheet via the following link: Market Sector Dashboard.
Especially, the simple yield spread (the TTM dividend yield minus the 10-year Treasury rates) is the first thing we look at. They give us a 30,000 feet view of where to look further - which sector, growth stocks, value stocks, bonds, or precious metals, et al. We will detail the meaning of each entry in the next section, and we update the dashboard monthly.
More specifically, for the energy sector represented by XLE:
- XLE currently is supported by strong fundamentals (imbalance in oil and natural gas supply-demand). On the technical side, its price has corrected for about 4% in the past quarter. On the valuation side, both its dividend yield and the yield spread relative to the risk-free rates are at a very attractive level. The conflict in Ukraine provides a near-term catalyst to XLE.
- The dashboard also shows that XLE is also attractively valued compared with other sectors. And next to the energy sector, small-caps are also at an attractive level currently, followed by the health sector.
- Sometimes, a sector is made attractive (or unattractive) by 1 or 2 stocks that have disproportionate weights. However, it is not the case here. We have examined several of leading stocks in XLE, including Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM), Chevron Corp (CVX), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Suncor Energy Inc (SU). And we feel they are all attractive in terms of valuation, profit outlook, and growth prospects.
- In contrast, the utility sector (represented by XLU) is the most overvalued sector when adjusted for risk-free rates.
If you’d like to see more detailed analysis of the energy sector, utility sector, and their leading stocks such as Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM), Chevron Corp (CVX), NextEra Energy (NEE), visit our Shopify Site for more in-depth reports.
