2022 下半年市场展望： 好机会估计在美国之外 价值投资者2022-08-29 19:23:57
Summary: The Fed’s recent hawkish announcement has caused large market corrections. We see increased volatility risks in the near future for the U.S. equity market. And at the same time, overall valaiton of the equity market is still elevated. In particular, I am seeing especially high valuation risk in traditional “safe-haven” sectors such as REITs and utilities. Instead, we see some good opportunities overseas, and investors could consider both ex-US Index Fund such as VEU or individual stocks like BTI and CNI.
We use the following market sector dashboard to put our finger on the pulse of the market and its major sectors. Feel free to download or export the google-sheet via the following link: Market Sector Dashboard. The detailed mechanism of the dashboard is provided in my blog article here
摘要：最近，美联储鹰派声明引起了市场的大幅调整。我们认为在不久的将来，美国股票市场的波动风险会增加。与此同时，股票市场的整体估值仍然是高的。特别是，我看到传统的 "避险 "行业，如房地产投资信托基金和公用事业的估值风险特别高。相反，我们看到了一些海外的好机会，投资者可以考虑VEU等除美国外的指数基金或BTI和CNI等个别股票。
我们制作了以下的市场行业仪表板来为市场及其主要行业把脉。请通过以下链接下载或导出谷歌表格。Market Sector Dashboard.
我们在另一篇blog 中也对行业仪表板的机制进行了详细的说明。
Especially, the simple yield spread (the TTM dividend yield minus the 10-year Treasury rates) is the first thing we look at. They give us a 30,000 feet view of where to look further - which sector, growth stocks, value stocks, bonds, or precious metals, et al. We will detail the meaning of each entry in the next section, and we update the dashboard monthly.
As you can see from the dashboard, despite the large corrections that have happened over the last week, the overall U.S. market together with all its sectors are still expensively valued. In particular, the utility sector represented by XLU is currently one of the most overvalued sectors based on its yield spread relative to the risk-free rates. Its yield spread is near a dangerous level in our view as indicated by the extremely negative dividend spread yield Z-score (-2.26).
Instead, we see some good opportunities overseas and investors could consider both ex-US Index Fund such as VEU. VEU’s valuation is currently near a multi-year bottom compared to the U.S. market represented by VTI as you can see from the 2nd chart below. To wit, historically, VEU’s dividend yield is on average about 1.25% above VTI. And currently, it is close to 2%, not only far above the historical average but also near a peak level since 2014.
If you’d like to see a more detailed analysis of the VEU fund or some overseas stock ideas, visit our Shopify Site for more in-depth reports. We have a more in-depth report detailing VEU and two individual stocks: British American Tobacco (BTI) and Canadian National Railway Company (CNI).
