刚才看到建宁先生的文章中提到Austin是过去30年房地产增值最大的地区，心中有点疑虑。我喜欢用数字说话，所以到 Zillow Research 找了数据。链接在下面, 有兴趣的朋友可以自己去下载数据看看。数据包括2000年1月至今美国各大主要地区的房价。我根据这些数据做了一个简单的统计, 结果如下。Austin 是在这11年间增值比较靠前的地区, 但并不是第一位。21年和11年的涨幅前20名的地区绝大多数都在西海岸, 以加州居多。这也间接验证了建宁先生的看法 -- 房地产税是房价增值中起到的一个重要因素。為什麼增值靠前的地区总是以加州居多? 除了加州得天独厚的地理位置和气候之外, 加州的低地税也是一个关键因素。加州的 Prop 13 规定每年的地税增幅不超过2%, 一直到房子换手的时候才能按照房子的市场价重新计算地税。因此, 对于以增值为主要目的的地产投资人而言, 房产税是一个重要的考虑因素。
https://www.zillow.com/research/data/
以下是2000年1月至2021年12月的增幅前20名地区:
| Rank | RegionName | RegionType | 1/31/2000 | 12/31/2021 | Growth 2000 to 2021 |
| 1 | Redding, CA | Msa | $79,301 | $368,616 | 364.83% |
| 2 | Payson, AZ | Msa | $78,799 | $341,519 | 333.41% |
| 3 | Bend, OR | Msa | $159,947 | $661,864 | 313.80% |
| 4 | Kapaa, HI | Msa | $189,547 | $777,509 | 310.19% |
| 5 | San Francisco, CA | Msa | $361,606 | $1,392,934 | 285.21% |
| 6 | Show Low, AZ | Msa | $89,490 | $344,581 | 285.05% |
| 7 | Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA | Msa | $232,075 | $871,123 | 275.36% |
| 8 | Riverside, CA | Msa | $144,020 | $534,726 | 271.29% |
| 9 | Steamboat Springs, CO | Msa | $236,099 | $868,975 | 268.06% |
| 10 | San Diego, CA | Msa | $229,073 | $838,226 | 265.92% |
| 11 | Newport, OR | Msa | $124,558 | $451,400 | 262.40% |
| 12 | Hood River, OR | Msa | $165,865 | $591,665 | 256.71% |
| 13 | San Jose, CA | Msa | $441,860 | $1,566,461 | 254.52% |
| 14 | Ocean City, NJ | Msa | $164,360 | $578,057 | 251.70% |
| 15 | Napa, CA | Msa | $249,416 | $876,679 | 251.49% |
| 16 | Bremerton, WA | Msa | $155,739 | $547,384 | 251.48% |
| 17 | Idaho Falls, ID | Msa | $106,892 | $373,905 | 249.80% |
| 18 | Laconia, NH | Msa | $113,665 | $395,851 | 248.26% |
| 19 | Urban Honolulu, HI | Msa | $253,188 | $875,747 | 245.89% |
| 20 | Kahului, HI | Msa | $261,795 | $903,703 | 245.19% |
以下是2010年1月至2021年12月的增幅前20名地区:
| Rank | RegionName | RegionType | 1/31/2010 | 12/31/2021 | Growth 2010 to 2021 |
| 1 | Merced, CA | Msa | $115,081 | $390,967 | 239.73% |
| 2 | Boise City, ID | Msa | $165,302 | $503,726 | 204.73% |
| 3 | Stockton, CA | Msa | $184,827 | $529,076 | 186.25% |
| 4 | Modesto, CA | Msa | $155,178 | $440,793 | 184.06% |
| 5 | Bend, OR | Msa | $240,921 | $661,864 | 174.72% |
| 6 | Carson City, NV | Msa | $177,621 | $479,808 | 170.13% |
| 7 | Reno, NV | Msa | $201,080 | $542,855 | 169.97% |
| 8 | Redding, CA | Msa | $137,880 | $368,616 | 167.35% |
| 9 | Phoenix, AZ | Msa | $161,141 | $429,595 | 166.60% |
| 10 | Fernley, NV | Msa | $150,159 | $398,283 | 165.24% |
| 11 | Coeur d'Alene, ID | Msa | $217,592 | $576,732 | 165.05% |
| 12 | Port St. Lucie, FL | Msa | $131,946 | $345,759 | 162.05% |
| 13 | Austin, TX | Msa | $212,305 | $550,972 | 159.52% |
| 14 | Riverside, CA | Msa | $206,467 | $534,726 | 158.99% |
| 15 | Aberdeen, WA | Msa | $119,462 | $308,918 | 158.59% |
| 16 | Gardnerville Ranchos, NV | Msa | $263,198 | $680,162 | 158.42% |
| 17 | Las Vegas, NV | Msa | $154,382 | $396,204 | 156.64% |
| 18 | Vallejo, CA | Msa | $233,546 | $592,504 | 153.70% |
| 19 | Madera, CA | Msa | $156,763 | $387,215 | 147.01% |
| 20 | Twin Falls, ID | Msa | $144,355 | $354,023 | 145.24% |
我在网上找到的另一篇文章也有类似的统计, 也就是过去20年增幅较大的地区集中在西海岸。文章链接如下:
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/20-years-of-home-price-changes-in-every-u-s-city/