trimtip2022-01-15 19:14:11

Get ready for the climb. Here’s what history says about stock-market returns during Fed rate-hike cycles

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/get-ready-for-the-climb-heres-what-history-says-about-stock-market-returns-during-fed-rate-hike-cycles-11642248640?siteid=yhoof2

 

In fact, during a Fed rate-hike cycle the average return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA is nearly 55%, that of the S&P 500 SPX is a gain of 62.9% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP has averaged a positive return of 102.7%, according to Dow Jones, using data going back to 1989 (see attached table). Fed interest rate cuts, perhaps unsurprisingly, also yield strong gains, with the Dow up 23%, the S&P 500 gaining 21% and the Nasdaq rising 32%, on average during a Fed rate hike cycle.

hhtt2022-01-15 19:32:00
谁相信这些数据,谁就是港都!2018年因为加息,股市大盘跌了20%!
Oona2022-01-15 19:35:51
感觉这次也要挤泡泡,很多人在这次房涨股跌中要吃亏,本质上还是抢中产的钱。
trimtip2022-01-15 19:37:57
这是按加息和减息周期,不是某一年的,方法比较特殊,按起始点和终点为一个周期。
hhtt2022-01-15 20:03:47
这种信息真是害人!牵强附会,什么2008到2019年加息,从2009年1月到2015年11月,联储没有加过一分利率!
pangpangxiongxiong2022-01-15 20:52:30
这个是误导
trimtip2022-01-15 21:08:45
加息之前,恐惧心理造成股市波动下跌,真开始加息其实股市就开始涨了,一直加到到某一天经济承受不起为止,股市会提前6个月暴跌,6个月
Shine202022-01-15 21:12:16
历史是不会简单重复的。
hhtt2022-01-15 21:54:30
这种文章作为学术的讨论也许可以,如果用来做投资指南,那就是谁听谁倒霉!
trimtip2022-01-15 22:00:23
这是过去几十年数据的反应,既不是短时间的炒股,也不是学术文章。
Hurstian2022-01-16 01:49:07
同意糊涂的意见. 不过什么可以当投资指南呢?