杨别青2021-03-10 20:34:17

城头新闻: "恐怖!研究:英国变种病毒致死率较旧病毒高100%"说得不够准确, 实际上英国变种病毒致死率是旧病毒1.64倍 .

"英国医学期刊(British Medical Journal)10日刊登的这项研究报告,将感染B117变种病毒的患者死亡率,与感染其他病毒的患者做比较,发现在5万4906个感染B117的样本中,227人死亡,同样是5万4906个感染其他变种病毒的样本,仅有141人死亡。

科学家指出,变种病毒B117有23个突变,其中部分的突变使其传染力更强,较先前一些主要流行的新冠病毒高出大约40%至70%,致死率也「明显高于」其他病毒;共同主导这项研究的英国艾希特大学(Exeter University)研究员查伦(Robert Challen)表示,致死率高,加上快速传播的能力,这让B117成为威胁,应该予以认真看待。"

参加者
54906对匹配的参与者进行了测试, 病人:10月1日2020年和2021年1月29日,后续行动至2021年2月,参与者的年龄,性别,种族相匹配,
死亡病人:首次出现SARS-CoV-2阳性后28天内死亡

结果
与VOC-202012 / 1相比,感染变体死亡率为1.64倍(95%置信区间为1.32至2.04)

Abstract

Objective

To establish whether there is any change in mortality from infection with a new variant of SARS-CoV-2, designated a variant of concern (VOC-202012/1) in December 2020, compared with circulating SARSCoV-2 variants. Design Matched cohort study. Setting Community based (pillar 2) covid-19 testing centres in the UK using the TaqPath assay (a proxy measure of VOC-202012/1 infection). Participants 54906 matched pairs of participants who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in pillar 2 between 1 October 2020 and 29 January 2021, followed-up until 12 February 2021. Participants were matched on age, sex, ethnicity, index of multiple deprivation, lower tier local authority region, and sample date of positive specimens, and differed only by detectability of the spike protein gene using the TaqPath assay. Main outcome measure Death within 28 days of the first positive SARS-CoV-2 test result.

Results

The mortality hazard ratio associated with infection with VOC-202012/1 compared with infection with previously circulating variants was 1.64 (95% confidence interval 1.32 to 2.04) in patients who tested positive for covid-19 in the community. In this comparatively low risk group, this represents an increase in deaths from 2.5 to 4.1 per 1000 detected cases

TBz2021-03-10 22:38:18
227/141=1.61
阿明.2021-03-11 02:00:28
城头新闻说的是:致死率较前几个病毒高出30%至100%,根据原文提供的数据
杨别青2021-03-11 04:05:13
高出32%至104%(均数0.6), 那么你我的看法差别在于用均数60%, 还是用上限104%表示这个差别
杨别青2021-03-11 04:06:18
应该没有算错,算法不一样
阿明.2021-03-11 07:15:34
那就不是“置信区间”了。用中间值表示是:1.68 + - 0.36
杨别青2021-03-11 16:56:06
我的理解用单一上限和下限值不如均数的代表性好, 我们观点不同,表达了自己观点就行,